 PRESS RELEASE
PRESS/363
5 November 2003
(03-5902)
TRADE STATISTICS
Supachai: sluggish trade growth calls for urgent pick up of stalled
trade talks
Fuelled by strong import demand in developing Asia, transition economies and the United States
world trade recovered in 2002 from its steep 2001 decline. But real growth of 3% was only half
the rate of trade expansion in the 1990s and weak  fourth quarter growth and the near stagnation
of trade flows in the first half of 2003 have diminished hopes for a rapid recovery in world trade
figures.
This sluggish performance in global trade an d the prospects for weak trade expansion in 2003
reinforces the already pressing need for WT O member governments to get global trade
negotiations back on track, said Director-General Supachai Panitchpakdi.
“The world’s political leaders must focus their attention on the stalled Doha Development Agenda
and demonstrate their willingness to spur the global economy through greater trade liberalizationand more equitable trade rules. The near stagnation of trade growth in the first half of 2003
underlines the urgency for governments to get back to the negotiating table and to work towards
building a stronger and more vibrant trading syst em,” said Director-General Supachai, following
release of the WTO’s International Trade Statistics 2003.
Highlights from the WTO International Trade Statistics 2003
• A weak trade recovery in 2002 was followed by a near stagnation of trade flows in the first
half of 2003. The sluggishness of international trade reflects above all the weak economicgrowth in the OECD countries and in particular Western Europe. Uncertainty about the
global economic prospects increased in the early months of 2003 due to the emergence of
SARS and the tensions in the Middle East. While the economic impact of SARS was largelyconfined to one region (East Asia) and a few sectors (the tourism industry and airtransportation), the situation in the Middle East contributed to an increase in energy pricesworldwide and had thereby an impact on the global recovery.
• In 2002, world trade recovered from its steep decline in 2001. The average annual rate of
merchandise trade expansion in 2002 was limited to 3% in real terms , only half the rate
observed in the 1990s.
• The trade recovery in 2002 benefited from strong import demand in developing Asia, the
transition economies and the United States. Sluggish import demand in Western Europeand a sharp contraction of Latin America’s imports constituted a drag on global tradeexpansion.PRESS/363
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• A combination of declining exports and rising imports by the United States has led to a
record trade and current account deficit, the latter equivalent to 5% of its GDP. UnitedStates’ merchandise trade recorded a deficit in all seven geographic regions, with all its sixmajor trading partners and in 15 of the 17 merchandise product gr oups distinguished in
this report.
• China’s trade expansion (both exports and im ports) remained outstanding. In the 1990s,
China’s trade growth was three times faster than global trade and between 2000 and 2002its exports and imports rose by 30%, while wo rld trade stagnated. China has become the
fourth largest merchandise trader (if one counts the EU as a single trader) in 2002.
• Chemicals emerged as the produc t group with the strongest trade growth over the last two
years. Driven by pharmaceutical trade amon g the developed countries, its share in world
merchandise exports rose above 10%, exceeding in value not only world trade inautomotive products, but also that of agricultural products.
• In the first half of 2003 world merchandise exports rose by 15% in dollar terms over the
corresponding period in 2002, a strong acceleration compared to the average 4% a nnual
growth in 2002. The depreciation of the US dollar and higher oil and non-fuel commodity
prices contributed to the dollar price and value increase in international trade.
• Adjusted for price and exchange rate change s, a different and less bright trade picture
emerges. OECD countries’ real exports in goods and services have stagnated from thefourth quarter of 2002 through the second quarter of 2003 (on a seasonally adjustedbasis).
• Developments in the first half of 2003 and the improvements of the leading indicators in
the third quarter lead to a projection of world merchandise trade growth of 3%, basicallyunchanged from the preceding year’s rate.
For the full report, go to the WTO website: http://www.wto.org
END